The book ‘Les cycles économiques – Une analyse empirique’ (Economic cycles – An empirical analysis) presents the work of the Comité de Datation des Cycles de l’Économie Française (CDCEF) set up in 2020 within the Association Française de Science Economique (AFSE). Published in October 2024, it was edited by Laurent Ferrara and Valérie Mignon, with associated contributions including that of Claude Diebolt, CNRS Research Director and member of BETA.
The book is divided into two parts. The first part deals with the history and methodology of business cycles. The second offers an application to the case of France, combining in an original way an econometric and narrative approach.
Abstract: After drawing lessons from the history of economic cycles before and after Keynes, the methodological aspects relating to the measurement and modelling of cycles are described in detail. Focusing then on France, the book proposes a determination of the dates of the phases of recession and expansion in the French economy since 1970.
The methodology used is original, combining econometric and narrative approaches, and provides a precise date for the turning points in the French economic cycle.
