Bio-economic modeling of the sector

The French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) has been in development at the LEF (Forest Economics Laboratory) until 2008 and subsequently at BETA. It is a predictive model representing the timber industry, forest management, and forest dynamics. It is capable of simulating the evolution of economic variables (prices of wood and timber products, quantities offered and consumed) and biophysical variables (timber stock in forests and in industry, carbon stored and sequestered in forests) at different scales and for a range of time frames, and of carrying out forecasting activities based on the analysis of scenarios.

Two versions exist: FFSM 1.0 consists only of the “resource” module and the “market” module, whereas FFSM++ incorporates two other modules: a “surface management” module and a “carbon accounting” module. The geographical and temporal scales are varied: FFSM 1.0 produces simulations at the level of the French administrative region, taking the rest of the world into account as a single entity and for a maximum time span of 10-15 years.

FFSM++ works at a regional scale for the economic part and at a scale of 8×8 km pixel for the resource part. Moreover, the integration of forest area management makes it possible to carry out longer-term simulations, in the order of 40 to 80 years. Connections can be established with other models in order to study specific dynamics: forest fires, pathogens, energy systems, etc.

The model continues to evolve today, notably thanks to contributions from PhD research projects. The last two theses produced from the team have made it possible to link the FFSM and the Life Cycle Assessment of the wood sector (Thomas Beaussier’s thesis, 2020) and to advance our thought concerning of the inclusion of environmental objectives in the forecasting exercises (Miguel Rivière’s thesis, 2021). Two new theses are currently in progress: one on the representation of the wood flow and trade at different scales (Valentin Mathieu’s thesis) and the other on the development of a Guianese version of FFSM (Guillaume Salzet’s thesis).

Website: https://ffsm-project.org/wiki/en/home

Contact: Miguel Rivière and Antonello Lobianco