Séminaire COURNOT – Alain Trannoy (EHESS / AMSE)
De 14:00 à 15:30
Détails de l'événement :
Titre : The outbreak of WW1: a contribution of rational decision-making
Résumé : We build a decision model to predict the choice between war and peace. This model articulates root causes as the risk of future conflict and other contingent factors such as the potential gains/losses in case of victory/defeat and the potential losses linked to the war itself. We calibrate the model to English, French, German and Russian decision-makers at the end of July 14, taking into account the decisions already taken by the Austrian Hungarian Empire. We are considering the case of a short war that would not have gone beyond the end of 1914. We find that the decisions taken by English, German and French deciders conditioned to the general mobilization of the Russian Army can be rationalized as a sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium in complete and perfect information. However, we encounter more difficulty calibrating the model so that the Russian decision might appear rational. The timing of decisions of Entente’s partners, who did not coordinate, represents a major factor in the outbreak of WW1.
Lieu du séminaire : Salle du Conseil et ZOOM
Agenda des séminaires : https://www.beta-economics.fr//seminaires-cournot-2021-2022/