Séminaire COURNOT exceptionnel – Panagiotis Liargovas (University of Peloponnese)

Détails de l'événement :

Titre 1 : Fiscal governance and forecasting Bias: a case study of Greece during the economic crisis.

Résumé 1 : In this paper, we examine the correlation between budget and growth forecast errors of the Greek Government, during the last decade. We explore if these budget forecast errors are the result of fiscal performance, economic conditions, or other qualitative characteristics of economic policy reform. We try to explain whether biased macroeconomic forecasts were responsible for biased fiscal forecasts. Besides, we investigate the role of business and consumers expectations, the election process and the financial aid disbursements following positive reviews of the Greek policy reform. We conclude that fiscal governance reform has improved fiscal forecasting framework, even though pessimistic forecasts prevail.

Titre 2 : Is EU Fiscal Governance Effective? A Case Study for the Period 1999–2019

Résumé 2 : This paper examines the factors that influence the effectiveness of fiscal governance in the EU through a panel of 19 Eurozone countries for the period 1999–2019 using an OLS method. The results show the positive effects of economic growth, inflation and the change in the general government balance on the fiscal forecast error. Furthermore, the fiscal forecast error is negatively affected by the level of public debt and by elections. Fiscal transparency is integrated into the analysis through independent financial institutions, which positively influence the general government balance forecast error. Finally, Economic Adjustment Programs have a positive effect on the fiscal forecast error, thus improving the efficiency of fiscal governance. This paper suggests that independent budgetary institutions, such as fiscal councils, and the delegation of further responsibilities to them increase countries’ sustainability of public finances.

Lieu du séminaire : Salle du conseil Paul Chamley et ZOOM.

Lien ZOOM : https://cnrs.zoom.us/j/99379057466?pwd=NkxneUtwVk5tR0hDUDVqcWU3S0w3UT09

Agenda des séminaires : https://beta-economics.fr/seminaires-cournot-2022-2023/